Based on the information gathered about the U.S. commercial real estate market in 2023, here's a summary of key trends and statistics:
1. Office Spaces:
Decline in Demand: Office demand has continued to decline sharply in 2023, resulting in a slowdown in new office space development. As of October, 98.7 million square feet of office space were under construction, representing 1.5% of the total stock. This is on track to end with slightly more than half of the new office space seen in each of the two previous years.
Rental Rates and Vacancy: Major markets like San Francisco and the Bay Area have seen a decrease in asking rents, with San Francisco experiencing a 5.5% decline year-over-year to $63.08 per square foot, and the Bay Area seeing a 2.9% decline to $54.01 per square foot. Seattle, however, saw a 1% increase in asking rents year-over-year.
2. Industrial & Logistics Sector
Strong Performance: Industrial and logistics leasing has exceeded expectations, with total activity projected to reach 750 million sq. ft. by year-end. Rent growth is expected to be just under 15% for the year, although vacancy rates will increase as new construction completions continue to outpace tenant requirements.
3. Multifamily Sector
Surpassing Forecasts: New construction and absorption levels in the multifamily sector have surpassed forecasts made at the beginning of the year. However, the annual rent growth forecast has been revised downward, primarily due to lower CPI inflation expectations and a downgraded employment outlook.
4. Retail Sector
Recovery and Strength: The retail sector has recovered faster than anticipated and enters 2023 in a position of strength. Retailer bankruptcies and store closures have decreased, and consumer spending in physical locations has returned, benefiting shopping centres.
5. General Market Outlook
Resilient Economy: The U.S. real estate market continues to show resilience amid persistent inflation, with CBRE pushing back the timing for a potential recession to late 2023 into Q1 2024. Investment volume is forecasted to fall by 37% year-over-year in 2023 and rise by 15% in 2024.
Overall, while office spaces face challenges with declining demand and rental rates, other sectors like industrial, logistics, multifamily, and retail demonstrate strong performance and growth. These trends reflect the dynamic nature of the U.S. commercial real estate market in 2023.